Commodities
Friday, April 11, 2013
CRUDE
CRUDE IN USD:
(FURTHER STUCK IN RANGE)
(WILL IT CONFIRM BREAKOUT THIS TIME AT EITHER OF SIDE???)
(FURTHER STUCK IN RANGE)
(WILL IT CONFIRM BREAKOUT THIS TIME AT EITHER OF SIDE???)
Crude closed $103.40 levels on 10.04.2014. As written in my earlier note on 25.09.2013 about DISTRIBUTIVE TRIANGLE TOP for Crude, it sharply corrected from higher levels & made a low of $91.24 levels on 09.01.2014. It managed to hold this support levels & started to rally further on upside.
As written on earlier note that $90 is very important levels to finally conclude & confirm this pattern of TOP DISTRICUIVVE TRIANGLE. Able to hold this support is raising doubt on this original view.
Momentum indicators of daily, weekly & monthly charts all turned in to BUY side, its not supporting earlier bearish view. It’s indicating probability of upside breakout, But I would recommend to be open & wait for price confirmation to reach final conclusion about medium term trend.
Therefore, I want to wait for breakout of this range to conclude final medium term trend for crude in USD unless if gets any advance indication of further trend. But I am Sharing both possible bullish & bearish option as below at current levels.
Bullish Possibility:
Either its full 4 years consolation& formed bullish running triangle as per chart attached with wave count marked in yellow color. In that case, One should watch out to break upper price range of $112-$114 for final confirmation of uptrend & eventually, we may see rally towards higher levels target till $168 on upside in medium term.
Bearish Possibility:
On the other way, if it’s distributive TOP TRIANGLE as per original assumption & chart attached with wave count market in red then its last up ward rally & it will not go beyond $112-$115 levels. Break below $90-$92 levels will give final confirmation of down side breakout & eventually, we may see sharp correction till $64 levels initially in medium term as per chart attached.
Conclusively, one should wait to break this broad range of $90 to $115 at either of side to conclude further medium term directional trend of Crude in USD.
As written on earlier note that $90 is very important levels to finally conclude & confirm this pattern of TOP DISTRICUIVVE TRIANGLE. Able to hold this support is raising doubt on this original view.
Momentum indicators of daily, weekly & monthly charts all turned in to BUY side, its not supporting earlier bearish view. It’s indicating probability of upside breakout, But I would recommend to be open & wait for price confirmation to reach final conclusion about medium term trend.
Therefore, I want to wait for breakout of this range to conclude final medium term trend for crude in USD unless if gets any advance indication of further trend. But I am Sharing both possible bullish & bearish option as below at current levels.
Bullish Possibility:
Either its full 4 years consolation& formed bullish running triangle as per chart attached with wave count marked in yellow color. In that case, One should watch out to break upper price range of $112-$114 for final confirmation of uptrend & eventually, we may see rally towards higher levels target till $168 on upside in medium term.
Bearish Possibility:
On the other way, if it’s distributive TOP TRIANGLE as per original assumption & chart attached with wave count market in red then its last up ward rally & it will not go beyond $112-$115 levels. Break below $90-$92 levels will give final confirmation of down side breakout & eventually, we may see sharp correction till $64 levels initially in medium term as per chart attached.
Conclusively, one should wait to break this broad range of $90 to $115 at either of side to conclude further medium term directional trend of Crude in USD.