Commodities
Friday, August 28, 2015
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL- $45.22 (28.08.2015)
REBOUND OR REVERSAL: (OBSERVATION NOTE).
DOWN SIDE RISK LOOKS LIMITED FROM HERE ON:
POSSIBILITY OF FORMING BASE BEFORE STARTS FRESH TREND:
Normally, I am not writing for commodities (esp. Crude Oil & Precious metals) & currencies (esp. USD/INR) on routine basis for trading perspectives. I prefer to write, if there is any change in my view about these particular Asset class from investment perspectives or any other interesting observation to be shared at crucial levels.
For Crude OIL, as Anticipated on 25.09.2013 around $ 97.11 levels, we have seen steepest Bear market after top triangular distribution in wave-B & Eventually it has broken it on down side & achieved my almost all medium to long term targets levels in this sharp fall.
It closed @$45.22 levels on 28.08.2015. It looks like completion of 5 wave decline on weekly chat for crude oil. It has also achieved 0.618% of wave-III targets in final wave-V near recent lows of $ 37.75 as per chart attached. It sharply rebound from these levels.
Its end of 5 wave decline for Crude oil or it will extend further for last & Final Equality targets of $24-$25 (i.e. A=C) in medium term is still not conclusive at current levels. But one thing is sure that down side looks limited for Crude oil as an Asset class if at all recent low breaks.
Although as an Asset class, after such a sharp fall we may see gradual beginning of any new trend for further higher level targets. Therefore, we may see some kind of further consolidation or range bound behavior for crude oil before it starts fresh rally towards higher levels targets & Confirms Bottom Reversal.
I was very reluctant to write such lower levels targets when I formed such view for Crude Oil as an asset class as mentioned below in 2013 because it was beginning for me in my career to make such kind of medium to long term forecasting through using Elliot wave principles esp. for Crude.
At the end, by looking at daily charts it looks like we may see short term rally in crude oil till $53 to $61/$66 levels initially till recent lows holds. Break of recent lows will finally confirm extension of recent down fall till further final lower levels targets till $32-$24 in short to medium term.
Its short term momentum indicators are in BUY; therefore, conclusively I would recommend that don’t be too bearish on crude at current levels of market from medium to long term perspectives as an Asset class.
REBOUND OR REVERSAL: (OBSERVATION NOTE).
DOWN SIDE RISK LOOKS LIMITED FROM HERE ON:
POSSIBILITY OF FORMING BASE BEFORE STARTS FRESH TREND:
For Crude OIL, as Anticipated on 25.09.2013 around $ 97.11 levels, we have seen steepest Bear market after top triangular distribution in wave-B & Eventually it has broken it on down side & achieved my almost all medium to long term targets levels in this sharp fall.
It closed @$45.22 levels on 28.08.2015. It looks like completion of 5 wave decline on weekly chat for crude oil. It has also achieved 0.618% of wave-III targets in final wave-V near recent lows of $ 37.75 as per chart attached. It sharply rebound from these levels.
Its end of 5 wave decline for Crude oil or it will extend further for last & Final Equality targets of $24-$25 (i.e. A=C) in medium term is still not conclusive at current levels. But one thing is sure that down side looks limited for Crude oil as an Asset class if at all recent low breaks.
Although as an Asset class, after such a sharp fall we may see gradual beginning of any new trend for further higher level targets. Therefore, we may see some kind of further consolidation or range bound behavior for crude oil before it starts fresh rally towards higher levels targets & Confirms Bottom Reversal.
I was very reluctant to write such lower levels targets when I formed such view for Crude Oil as an asset class as mentioned below in 2013 because it was beginning for me in my career to make such kind of medium to long term forecasting through using Elliot wave principles esp. for Crude.
At the end, by looking at daily charts it looks like we may see short term rally in crude oil till $53 to $61/$66 levels initially till recent lows holds. Break of recent lows will finally confirm extension of recent down fall till further final lower levels targets till $32-$24 in short to medium term.
Its short term momentum indicators are in BUY; therefore, conclusively I would recommend that don’t be too bearish on crude at current levels of market from medium to long term perspectives as an Asset class.