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The views expressed are based purely on Technical studies. The calls made herein are for information purpose only. The information and views presented here are prepared by Devang Shah.The information contained herein is based on my analysis of the Charts. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The Investment discussed & recommended on this website may not be suitable for all. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent Views, as they believe necessary.
While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned on this website, investors may please note that neither Devang Shah nor any person connected with him accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned herein. I may hold long or short positions in the securities/commodities discussed herein from time to time. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities/commodities, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities/commodities.

Commodities


Wednesday, December 16, 2015


  CRUDE

CRUDE: $ 37.35 (15/12/2015):
A GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL OR MEDIUM TERM BOTTOM ONCE AGAIN:

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Crude closed $37.35 levels on 15.12.2015. I anticipated Bottom on my earlier view on 28.08.2015, after completion of 5 wave decline on weekly charts. But we have seen further extension of this correction & it has broken earlier low of $37.75 & made a low of $34.53 on 14.12.2015 marginally below it.

As mentioned earlier also, reiterating once again same that down side risk looks limited for crude at current levels. It has major strong support around $32 levels form medium to long term perspectives. Till it holds we can see further possibility case of Trend reversal or bottom formation once again. Break of it, will finally confirm last & final fall till $24 levels in short to medium term. & if it holds these support levels in the range of $34-$32 levels, then we may see upward pull back rally in short to medium term.

The following observations are showing strong case for trend reversal in crude once again.

1. It looks like 9th leg on monthly charts on crude oil as per chart attached therefore very much possibility of end of wave-C around these levels.

2. It also looks like ending diagonal pattern with wave-e throw over on daily chart of 9th leg of crude as per chart attached. Normally, such kind of patterns forms as per name forms at then end of trend.

If its going to end of ABC correction, then we may see major bottom formation at these levels & we can see pull back rally towards target1-$51 & target 2-$62 levels in short to medium term initially from here on..

Although, Daily, weekly & monthly momentum indicators are still in sell but I am pre-empting it for GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL based on above observation.

It may form some base formation or consolidation before it starts fresh rally towards higher levels targets. Sustain above $43.46 levels will be a first confirmation of bottom for crude at recent lows of $34.53 levels.

Conclusively, one thing is clear that down side looks limited till $32-$24 levels even if recent low break, therefore, I am looking for evidences for TREND REVERSAL as a ASSET CLASS at current or any lower levels in CRUDE.





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