Commodities
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
CRUDE
CRUDE: $ 37.35 (15/12/2015):
A GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL OR MEDIUM TERM BOTTOM ONCE AGAIN:
Crude closed $37.35 levels on 15.12.2015. I anticipated Bottom on my earlier view on 28.08.2015, after completion of 5 wave decline on weekly charts. But we have seen further extension of this correction & it has broken earlier low of $37.75 & made a low of $34.53 on 14.12.2015 marginally below it.
As mentioned earlier also, reiterating once again same that down side risk looks limited for crude at current levels. It has major strong support around $32 levels form medium to long term perspectives. Till it holds we can see further possibility case of Trend reversal or bottom formation once again. Break of it, will finally confirm last & final fall till $24 levels in short to medium term. & if it holds these support levels in the range of $34-$32 levels, then we may see upward pull back rally in short to medium term.
The following observations are showing strong case for trend reversal in crude once again.
1. It looks like 9th leg on monthly charts on crude oil as per chart attached therefore very much possibility of end of wave-C around these levels.
2. It also looks like ending diagonal pattern with wave-e throw over on daily chart of 9th leg of crude as per chart attached. Normally, such kind of patterns forms as per name forms at then end of trend.
If its going to end of ABC correction, then we may see major bottom formation at these levels & we can see pull back rally towards target1-$51 & target 2-$62 levels in short to medium term initially from here on..
Although, Daily, weekly & monthly momentum indicators are still in sell but I am pre-empting it for GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL based on above observation.
It may form some base formation or consolidation before it starts fresh rally towards higher levels targets. Sustain above $43.46 levels will be a first confirmation of bottom for crude at recent lows of $34.53 levels.
Conclusively, one thing is clear that down side looks limited till $32-$24 levels even if recent low break, therefore, I am looking for evidences for TREND REVERSAL as a ASSET CLASS at current or any lower levels in CRUDE.
A GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL OR MEDIUM TERM BOTTOM ONCE AGAIN:
As mentioned earlier also, reiterating once again same that down side risk looks limited for crude at current levels. It has major strong support around $32 levels form medium to long term perspectives. Till it holds we can see further possibility case of Trend reversal or bottom formation once again. Break of it, will finally confirm last & final fall till $24 levels in short to medium term. & if it holds these support levels in the range of $34-$32 levels, then we may see upward pull back rally in short to medium term.
The following observations are showing strong case for trend reversal in crude once again.
1. It looks like 9th leg on monthly charts on crude oil as per chart attached therefore very much possibility of end of wave-C around these levels.
2. It also looks like ending diagonal pattern with wave-e throw over on daily chart of 9th leg of crude as per chart attached. Normally, such kind of patterns forms as per name forms at then end of trend.
If its going to end of ABC correction, then we may see major bottom formation at these levels & we can see pull back rally towards target1-$51 & target 2-$62 levels in short to medium term initially from here on..
Although, Daily, weekly & monthly momentum indicators are still in sell but I am pre-empting it for GOOD CASE FOR TREND REVERSAL based on above observation.
It may form some base formation or consolidation before it starts fresh rally towards higher levels targets. Sustain above $43.46 levels will be a first confirmation of bottom for crude at recent lows of $34.53 levels.
Conclusively, one thing is clear that down side looks limited till $32-$24 levels even if recent low break, therefore, I am looking for evidences for TREND REVERSAL as a ASSET CLASS at current or any lower levels in CRUDE.